Can You Believe 2020 Is Here?

Alabama, 1992

It seems like only yesterday the world was about to collapse with the arrival of Y2K.

Somehow, the computers didn't all crash simultaneously when the calendar dates changed, and we've now survived another twenty years.

Going back fifty years to the first Earth Day in 1970, many serious scientists, activists and politicians predicted we would face starvation and disaster by the year 2000.  The likely culprits were global cooling and overpopulation.

Nashville, 1976

I admit that Southern California is a lot more crowded than I would prefer, especially on the freeways, but I haven't come close to starving so far.  In fact, I could use to drop a few pounds.

This is a time of incredible abundance for the average American, with record low unemployment for all demographics, take-home pay jumping considerably, record stock market prices ballooning retirement plans, and manufacturers including Apple Computers bringing jobs back to the United States, something very recently mocked as requiring a "magic want" to accomplish.

We also happen to live in a time of relative peace, when we can travel to anywhere in the world we are likely to want to go.

Darlene and Wes, 1954

Will there be challenges ahead?

Of course there will be challenges, but fortunately humans have the ability to change directions.

More significantly, every supposed crisis has potential opportunities on the other side.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

In addition, straight-line models based on the best available technology and conditions usually turn out to be wrong.

Approaching the year 1900, futurists predicted that New York City would soon have too much tangible pollution in the form of horse manure in the streets to remain a livable city for decent people.  "Horseless carriages" saved the Knickerbockers.

Going further back in the 1800's, hunting whales to extinction was predicted in London to bring an abrupt end to the industrial age.  After all, what could possibly replace whale oil?

Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, 2019

We all know the answer turned out to be petroleum, so you might say companies like Standard Oil saved the whales, regardless of their intention.

Back at the first Earth Day, smog in Los Angeles seemed to be getting worse by the day, but humans responded to the challenge.

The catalytic converter soon became mandatory in California and other places.

Despite having several times as many cars on the road now, the air in L.A. is visibly cleaner.

Catalytic converters turn harmful pollutants into harmless chemicals, right?

Big Sky, Montana, 2019

Well, it turns out that what they called harmless in 1970 were H2O (water) and CO2 (carbon dioxide).

Static models show that CO2 in the atmosphere results in temperatures increasing.

But other models of solar flares indicate that we could be on the cusp of a new ice age right now due to a "Grand Solar Minimal," causing temperatures to fall.

Could it be that warming caused by CO2 will help counterbalance the cooling of low solar activity for the next 33 years, giving us additional time to perfect alternative energy and scrubbing what otherwise would be fossil fuel pollution?

Grasmere, England 2019

Could those politicians in the 1970's who accidentally mandated increase in CO2 have set the stage to keep crops from freezing in the year 2030?

I personally have questions as to the accuracy of most man-made global warming projections. There seem to be issues with gathering the underlying data, including human error in the age before digital readouts, heat-sinking concrete structures developing around the places where temperatures are read, and the switch from ice core samples to thermometer readings at exactly the point where the theoretical "hockey stick" spikes up.

Carnival Panorama, 2019

Prominent scientists who provided models now say the "crisis" has been overstated by politicians and activists.

In any case, my point is that 2020 is not a year to live in fear.  Everything is pretty fantastic.

Wake up and smell the roses....or coffee, depending on your personal preference.

If you've metaphorically lost your olfactory senses at home, maybe you need to take a trip.

I'm not sure if my optimism and happiness are based exclusively on our frequent travel.

Perhaps some people are happy while others are sad by nature.

I can say that it is much easier to see the world anew by looking in a different direction.

We're already looking forward to some great trips for 2020.

I hope you are blessed to do so yourself.

Happy New Year!

Wes, Julie and Family