Last minute deals do not come to people who show up on the pier, suitcase in hand, on the day of the cruise. Contrary to widespread belief, most cruise ships sell out week after week. Someone cancelling at the last minute is unlikely, and if they do, they're not getting their money back from the cruise line, which still sees the room as sold.
In addition, prices do not necessarily get lower as the embarkation date arrives. One reason I decided to revisit this topic is that every week I have clients call me hoping to get a deal on a cruise leaving later that same week. In most cases, those cruises are sold out. If there is availability, the prices may be higher than they had been a few weeks before. "What?" they'll ask incredulously. "But it was $200 cheaper two weeks ago." All I can do is offer the same old explanation.
When cruise lines get about three to six weeks from the cruise, they may realize that some ships aren't quite full. They decide to top off the cruise, not unlike pouring warm soda over ice after the first pour's fizz has settled. Depending on how much they need to fill it up, they adjust their efforts. Two identical cruises can have prices hundreds of dollars apart despite being separated by only a week. It all depends on the particular situation. Not all cruises have last minute deals, and surprisingly frequently, better deals may have been available a couple of months earlier, but those shockingly low prices are almost always in this last minute deal category.
There are some exceptions. Fall and winter cruises frequently have low lead rates available year round, if you are flexible about your room, but that's normal seasonal fluctuation. You should never assume that a low rate available for November will be reflected as a last minute deal on a similar cruise in July, when demand will be much higher.
Ideally, cruise lines would start their prices as low as possible when they first went on sell to encourage people to book early. This is frequently the case for more upscale cruise lines and for suites on mainstream cruises. As the cruise embarkation approaches, promotions change to gradually increase the bottom line price. For example, Oceania will have free air plus 2-for-1 cruise rates when they open for booking, eventually evolving to reduced air and then no air reduction, with the discount on the cruise itself also squeezing lower. Booking early gets you the best price and also places you in favorable position for free upgrades on these cruises.
For most people, booking early is the way to go. Why? If you don't make plans for your life, your life will make plans for you. If you have your vacation blocked on your calendar and you know what cruise you will be on, the rest of your life must work around that schedule. When the time comes, you don't have something else planned that stops you from going, and you will have consciously budgeted for your trip so you are ready to go. If an applicable promotion becomes available after booking, I am happy to get that for you, although it should be noted that most "last minute deals" after final payment (like Royal Caribbean Sales Events) are for new bookings only. Another sticking point of last minute deals can be air availability, both in terms of schedule and price. If you save $100 on the cruise but pay $200 more for air, that's not really a deal.
In any case, more people are waiting for last minute deals. Just don't wait too late.
